India’s goods exports figure for July has been sharply revised upwards by about $2.3 billion to $34.52 billion, driven by a 51% jump in the petroleum exports tally from the initial estimates for the month.
This is the sharpest revision in export figures since March and implies that July’s revised year-on-year decline in goods exports of 9.95% was the least since April, breaking a three-month streak of double-digit contractions. Initial estimates had pegged July’s goods exports at a nine-month low of $32.25 billion, translating a 15.9% YoY slump.
The revised July tally also puts August’s initial export estimates of $34.5 billion, which were reckoned to be a three-month high, in the shade. Moreover, with no substantive changes in the $52.9 billion merchandise import bill for July, the goods trade deficit has also narrowed to a three-month low of $18.4 billion, from the initial $20.7 billion estimate.
Earlier, June’s exports had been revised higher by $1.4 billion, reviving a spate of such data revisions that began in late 2021 and peaked in the final six months of 2022-23, when the final tallies for exports were raised by almost $3 billion a month. Import numbers were also revised last year, with October to March seeing an average change of $1.8 billion from estimates, albeit with upward as well as downward revisions.
The latest upward revisions for June and July, after neglible changes in April and May, assume significance as economists expect the current account deficit, which rose sequentially in the first quarter of this year, to widen in the coming quarters owing to exports shrinking faster than imports thus broadening the trade shortfall. However, the final picture may turn out to be healthier than currently estimated, if such positive revisions to the initial trade data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry extend over the rest of the fiscal. year
As per the revised data, petroleum products exports, which were earlier reckoned to have dropped 43.7% in July to just $4.6 billion, actually ended up close to $7 billion, reflecting only an 18.8% drop from last July. Officials had earlier attributed the unusually high revisions to delays in the reporting of some petroleum exports, particularly from units located in special economic zones.
Over the past two months, the ministry has emphasised that the decline in India’s exports was “disproportionately” driven by a fall in the value of petroleum exports. Nearly half of the decline in exports this year has been driven by the decline in petroleum prices, with these products’ export volumes rising 6% during April to July, while prices were 27% lower than a year earlier.
As per the quick estimates for August, overall goods exports fell 6.9%, while petroleum exports were reckoned to have slumped 30.6% to $5.88 billion.
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